Wednesday, July 24, 2013

I've had a love/hate relationship with Spectranetics (SPNC) for more than 15 years now. I've always loved the potential of the company's laser ablation products in markets like pacemaker/ICD lead removal and peripheral atherectomy, but I've hated the company's pattern of inconsistent execution and the inability to ever "get over the hump" and establish a true growth trajectory.

I expressed similar reservations about a year and half ago, and it turns out that my timing was precisely wrong, as the shares (along with the med-tech sector) began an impressive run that has seen better than 130% appreciation and several positive sell-side initiations. Curiously, my financial model has proven to be accurate in terms of revenue evolution and my estimates for margins and cash flow have proven too bullish. What has changed is investor sentiment and optimism around the company's ability to penetrate the lead removal and atherectomy markets.

Spectranetics is now valued as a med-tech growth stock, and if management can continue to deliver double-digit revenue growth it is not unreasonable to think that the shares will reach the low-to-mid $20s over the next 6 to 9 months (approximately a 20% return). Unfortunately, that potential is tempered by the realities of a challenging market and improving alternatives.

Please continue here:
Spectranetics Has Multiple Attractive Opportunities, But Will They Execute?

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